Translation Sniper

San Diego at New England, 3pm
Last week, against the defending champs, on the road, against Peyton Manning, the Chargers somehow won. On the most important drive of the season, in one of the loudest, stadiums in the country, with the two most important players on the offense sidelined with injuries and Gates hobbling on one foot, with Norm Turner (Norv Turner!) as coach, the Chargers won.

At this point, San Diego either a) is a team of destiny that will not be stopped no matter who they face, be it New England, the Packers, or the ‘85 Bears, or b) has used up what ever karmic luck the team had coming for the next 50 years in the span of about 18 minutes last Sunday, and are thus doomed to finish with a losing record for the rest of our natural lives.

Quite frankly I don’t know what to think. But I’d need to have a heck of a lot more tangible evidence of the potential for an upset before I go against a 17-0 team with Brady and Moss.

New England 31, San Diego 21

NY Giants at Green Bay Packers, 6:30pm
Everyone who said two-three years ago that Favre should hang it up, raise your hand. (Everyone raises their hands). Everyone who thought Favre would be playing for a shot at the Super Bowl in late January, raise your hand (everyone, put your hands down).

Now – I’ve managed to watch a few Packers games this year, and I have to say, I disagree with most of the sportswriters who say that Favre is doing a better job of ‘playing within himself’. Those guys haven’t been watching the same games I’ve been watching, because I’ve seen Favre do the same thing he’s been doing his entire career – slinging the ball when he gets pressured, throwing into double or even triple coverage. The difference this year? Luck – the past few years, those balls thrown into double and triple coverage were being picked off. This year, they’ve been caught or batted down. But you can’t win over 16 games on luck alone. So what is the biggest difference between the 8-8 packers last year, and the 13-3 Packers this year? I think the biggest factor has been the emergence of a running game. I don’t think it’s necessarily translated into more running yards over the season, since Ryan Grant only really came on over the latter half of the season. But having a viable option to hand off to means Favre hasn’t been asked to do everything by himself – his number of pass attempts for the year is the fifth or sixth lowest of his career, and lowest since 2002. The result has been more success when throwing: The Packers went from 9th to 2nd in total yardage for the regular season, and mostly thanks to passing yards, not rushing yards. Favre has been able to pass when he wants to, not because he feels like he has to.

What about the Giants? I was extremely impressed by their game against the Patriots, and last week’s win vs Dallas on the road was the second straight win on the road in a big playoff game for Little Manning. Two games does not a career make, but maybe Eli has in fact turned the corner.  The Giants have a tough, tough defense - 7th in the league in terms of yards allowed, but I don’t think that really captures the toughness of that D – and just enough weapons on offense to take advantage of any opportunities.

I am _really_ excited about this game. The teams match up fairly well against each other (you know Favre didn’t want to go do Dallas – he’s oh-for-lifetime there). This has the potential to be a fantastic game. I think the Packers are the better team by a very, very slim margin – and with the forecast calling for snow, I’m not about to go against Favre in a playoff game for the Super Bowl at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay 21, New York 20