….and already ruling the roost <g>

I’m sure heads of state have spent less time and energy on S.A.L.T. negotiations or GATT trade agreements compared to the time and effort we spent on deciding on a name for our baby! Part of the problem was that we had a couple of names that we all kinda liked, but that were relatively common, while one of the names we all liked in particular was a bit unusual. Ultimately we went with the unusual name. So without further ado, our baby’s name is (drum roll):

ADAIR ANTHONY (First name, middle name)

Adair (a-DARE) is a somewhat common last name but very rare as a first name. The name is Scottish/Celtic in orgin, and means ‘from the ford by the oak trees’, which is kinda neat since there is a small tree-lined creek right behind our house. The story behind the name for us, however, is that the name pronounced in Japanese sounds like ‘thank you’ in Turkish…and we did spend Easter holiday last year in Istanbul. Hmm.  -

Anthony is my middle name, and I’ve always liked it.

After deciding on the name, I did a quick Google search to see if there was anyone out there with that name – found lots of people with Adair as a last name, but only turned up one first name…but it was pretty impressive – Lord Adair Turner is the chairman of the FSA, the UK equivalent of the SEC in the US. So a big name in UK finance, with a title of nobility to boot! Hopefully that’s a good omen!

…another Urista to unleash upon the world! Meet ‘Baby’, born 12:10am on Monday, January 4, the Year of the Tiger. He was 3,070 grams (6.7lbs) and healthy and perfect in all respects:

It was a long, 24-hour labor, but Mom & baby are doing fantastic! We don’t have a name yet, so he’ll be ‘Baby’ for a while yet.

Two interesting articles in this week’s Nikkei Veritas. (http://veritas.nikkei.co.jp/index.aspx – all in Japanese, and you’ll need to buy a subscription to read the whole edition).

First – the feature article spends about four pages talking what Japan might look like for the typical household in 2020. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture – average annual GDP growth of only around 1%, average number of people paying into national pension/health insurance per senior citizin falling from 2.82 in 2009 to 2.05, a 4 million person decline in the total workforce, number of nursing care providers needed to take care of an aging population increasing from 1.2 million in 2008 to 2.14 million…

The article suggests a number of possible proposals to address these problems: Pushing back the retirement age to 67 or even 70 (one assumes that this would be in tandem with a hike in the minimum age at which one can receive benefits), or raising the consumption tax to at least 10%. Another big initiative is to get senior citizens and women into the workforce. This, of course, has two drawbacks – first, having more women in the workforce probably won’t do Japan’s already-low birth rate any favors. Second, Japan already faces a shortage of nursing/health care providers – having more senior citizens and women leave the home and move into the workforce isn’t going to help matters. We saw above that Japan will need another 1 million care providers by 2020, and that’s without having any increase in women/senior citizens participating in the labor force.

Finally -irony of ironies – one major topic was expanding the tourism trade to attract 20 milloin people to visit Japan by 2020, more than double the current level.

I say that is ironic because NO WHERE does the article mention the best and most obvious choice for a country with a dwindling workforce and rapidly aging population: Immigration. Tourists, yes! Come spend your money here. Just don’t stay too long. That immigration wasn’t even mentioned suggests Japan would rather fade into an irreversible decay of sub-standard living standards and global irrelevance before it let more foreigners in. The biggest danger I see is that the everyday man on the street seems to think that ‘no economic growth’ will mean things just stay as they are – which they might IF the country wasn’t already facing a declining workforce and aging population.

Even without going into the deep economics of it, immigration makes sense conceptually. For example: For the first 20 years or so of their lives, children are a massive fiscal drain for a country – children need health care and education, but selfishly don’t work to offset the costs. In return, however, they work for 40 years or so after getting out of school, and pay in to the pension/healthcare system. Once they retire, however, they have to depend on the country again for 20 years or so.

Immigrants, on the other hand, tend to be young adults – just at the starting points of their careers. And some (many?) end up going back to their native lands at some point. In other words – immigrants often make a big fiscal contribution to the country by being here in there working years, but are often not a drain on the country because they aren’t here as children and/or retirees. If Japan is serious about tackling is problems of future growth, immigration is going to have to be on the ticket.

The second article is by Takeshi Nakano, a To-dai grad and former MITI (MIET) wonk currently working as a professor at the University of Edinburgh. He argues that free trade is wrong, and that protectionism is good – that protecting local industries results in thriving local eocnomy, and that thriving economy is what boosts trade. In other word, free trade is a result of – not a cause of – economic growth.

Somewhere, Adam Smith and David Ricardo are spinning around in their graves as 250 years of economic thought are flushed down the drain.

Nakano’s first evidence is the 19th century: an era of global free trade from 1860 through 1892 or so, coincided with the long global depression (dates vary, but generally run from 1870 through the early part of the 1890s for Europe, and much shorter for the US, 1872-1879), and that countries only pulled out of the (series of) recessions from 1892-94 as European governments started implementing protectionist policies. He also says that overall trade flourished over the latter half of the 19th century – and that trade increased fastest in countries with the most protectionist policies, but that England – which maintained the most open trade policy – suffered the most severe downturn. Finally, he says that Paul Krugman agrees with this view, in a Feb 1 2009 NY Times piece (full piece here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/protectionism-and-stimulus-wonkish/)

His thinking is shaky at best. The late 19th century depression is mostly considered to be a fall in prices, not a depression-level fall in actual output. Secondly, he is so far wrong on his dates that one can only conclude he is being deceptive on purpose: many nations did indeed turn to protectionism as the recession worsened – but far, far earlier than Nakano says. Germany and France dropped their free trade stance in the late 1870s, for instance. One could suggest that these protectionist movements were a reason the recession lasted so long in the first place. Nakano also fails to note that this was long before Keynsian economics came along to change in thinking regarding government involvement in national economic strategy.

Worse, he completely (deliberately?) mis-reads Krugman’s article and cherry-picks his quotes. Krugman is clearly noting that the extreme circumstances of the time and the short-term/long-term trade-offs and risks. Protectionism in the form of subsidies and tax incentives is NOT the same thing as restricting imports and increasing tariffs.

Finally – Nakano simply fails to adhere to one the most basic principals of economic thought: What is good for one might not be good for the whole. If I stand up at a football match, maybe I have a better view (to the detriment to the people behind me). If everyone in the stadium stands up, I may be no better off – or indeed, I maybe worse off. Germany and the rest of Europe may have benefitted in the late 19th century specifically because the UK and (for the most part) the US continued to buy their goods, even though they did little to return the favor.

Nakano’s thinking is clearly that protectionism is better for me, as long as you keep buying my stuff.

A classic from the Straight Dope:

Dear Cecil:

Over one hundred years ago, on September 21, 1897, a little girl with great doubts asked the editor of the New York Sun for the answer to a question that had been bothering her. There was no Straight Dope then, so she had to settle. The Sun came up with an answer, a good answer, the correct answer. But folks have forgotten it, or no longer believe it. The man who answered her question was just a staff writer who got the assignment from his boss. He wasn’t the World’s Smartest Human, like you are. He didn’t command the respect that you do. So, I hope you won’t mind settling this question once and for all, for all the little Annies, Ryans, Joshes, Megans, and Tammys in the world. If I may paraphrase:

Dear Cecil: I am 47 years old. Some of my friends on the Straight Dope Message Board say there is no Santa Claus. JKFabian says, “If you see it in the Straight Dope it’s so.” Please tell me the truth. Is there a Santa Claus?

— Ranger Jeff, The Idol of American Youth

Dear Jeff:

Let’s just say his existence can’t be definitely ruled out.

I’m not saying there aren’t improbable aspects to the story. You have x number of kids (even leaving out the Muslims, Shintoists, Hindus, animists, etc., who one presumes get shafted, giftwise), you have y time per visit, you have z average distance between domiciles, you have an earth of known diameter, and you have 24 hours in the day. It doesn’t add up. You have the problem of access to the gift-giving venue in the absence of chimneys with fireplaces, unless we’re assuming that Santa Claus oozes through the keyholes in the manner of the critter in The Abyss, which is not a pretty picture. You have the problem of what in all likelihood is the earth’s single largest concentration of toy manufacturing facilities in a polar region remote from resources of every type (cold excepted), that’s so carefully camouflaged as to be invisible to satellite surveillance, and that produces no detectable emissions. Although now that one thinks about it, there’s that ozone hole over the south pole. Hmm.

On the other hand, consider the following:

• A great many seemingly improbable events do in fact occur. Florida winning the World Series. Cleveland winning the World Series. Compared to this, what is the accurate delivery of zillions of packages in the course of a single night?
• Besides, Fed Ex does it. So what if we’re talking Memphis and drivers in baseball caps rather than the north pole and elves? It’s the principle of the thing.
• OK, so there’s a certain amount of mortal participation involved. Perhaps, as a parent, you’ve personally done your bit to help Santa and thought you did so of your own accord. The ants in the anthill probably think they’re doing it on a whim, too. But looking at the matter objectively, we can’t deny that a larger purpose is at work and that we are in the service of an agency greater than ourselves.
• You mean the IRS.
• I mean the impulse to be generous. Three hundred sixty-four days out of the year humankind commits all manner of heinous acts. On the 365th day we give toys to the kids. I’m not saying that the latter compensates for the former. I’m not saying Adolph Hitler wouldn’t have given presents to his children, if he’d had children. But come on, it’s got to count for something. The giving of gifts in such a way that no credit will devolve upon ourselves is sufficiently at odds with our routine behavior as to be accounted a mystery, and we may as well give that mystery a name. Santa Claus it is.
• Besides, to believe in Santa Claus is to believe in magic. The belief in magic in many respects is a pernicious thing. Because of it you’ve got countless multitudes thinking that aliens abduct people, that Elvis is alive, that you can earn big money stuffing envelopes in your home, and that the TV preacher can cure you if you send him 50 bucks. A certain class of persons, of whom your columnist is one, will go through their lives attempting to extinguish these foolish hopes. No doubt in the main it is good that we do so. But even the sternest among us remembers the wonder we felt as children to think there was a force having a kindly interest in us that wasn’t bound by the rules of this drab world. Wherefore if there’s someone who’s going to say flat out that Santa Claus doesn’t exist, it’s not going to be me.

X Factor is a ‘let’s find a new singer star act’ here in the UK – think American Idol (both shows are, in fact, produced and run by Simon Cowell). The show has run for about six years now – and every year, the final show generates massive newsflow and ratings. The last show of the year is in early/mid December, and in every case the winner of that year’s edition has had the Number One song for Christmas. I didn’t know this, but apparently betting on which song will win the Number One slot for Christmas is apparently a decades-old UK tradition.

Well, some people have gotten sick of having each year’s Christmas song shoved down their throats. This year, there was a massive grass-roots movement to get an alternative song into the No. 1 slot – and they actually did it: Rage Against the Machine’s ‘Killing in the Name’ is this year’s number one Christmas song beating out X Factor winner Joe McElderry’s song (‘The Climb’) by 50,000 copies.

‘Killing’ is  great song – not sure how Christmas-y it is. But kind of a cool story, where the people actually beat out Simon Cowell’s corporate machine.

I personally hate this ‘manufactured star’ model. How many of these stars actually go on to have major careers?  Here are the X Factor winners:

Steve Brookstein
Shayne Ward
Leona Lewis
Leon Jackson
Alexandra Burke
Joe McElderry

Here are the American Idol winners:

Kelly Clarkson
Ruben Studdard (Clay Aiken)
Fantasia Barrino
Carrie Underwood
Taylor Hicks
Jordin Sparks
David Cook
Kris Allen

Of these, the only ones I’ve actually heard of are Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood and Leona Lewis. I actually think Daughtry was the best act to come out of American Idol and he didn’t even make it to the finals. Not commercial enough, I guess. But the rest of those names? I mean, granted – I’m definitely not up on the modern pop scene (you know you’re getting old when you never know more than a couple of names in the weekly ‘Top Ten’ lists…and only when those acts are ‘revival’ acts from when you were in uni…). But still – I wouldn’t know any of the other names if they came up to me and introduced themselves on the street.

I think I’ll stick to acts like Jamie Cullum that made it on their own, with their own talent.

The better half and I went to a classical music concert this past Friday

György Kurtág …quasi una fantasia…
Mozart Piano Concerto No 9 in E flat major, K. 271
Kodály Mátrai Pictures (Matrai Pictures)
Bartók The Miraculous Mandarin

This was an interesting concert – the only piece that sounded like typical classical music was the Mozart piece. I wasn’t that familiar with this piece, but really enjoyed the back-and-forth between the piano and orchestra. Interestingly, the somber, second movement didn’t sound like a normal Mozart piece.

The third piece was an interesting chorus piece – basically a three-part song based on Hungarian folk tales. It was quite short but powerful.

The first and last pieces, however, were….well, to this un-educated ear (when it comes to classical music), it was the equivalent to listening to hip-hop or something. Nothing sounded musical. There was just no base of reference to use when listening – just a bunch of random noise.

I know some other Bartok pieces that I actually like. Apparently this piece – The Miraculous Mandarin – is quite famous – in part because of its scandalous story line (I can’t believe this was on the program for what was supposed to be ‘family night’!). But I personally didn’t really care all that much for it. It was still preferable to the first piece, that was really just a bunch of random noise. Here’s the first three sections – it’s quite short, only a few minutes each.

quasi una fantasia – movement 1
quasi una fantasia – movement 2
quasi una fantasia – movement 3

Yep, it’s Christmas time, which means it’s time to start making eggnog! I really like this recipe (makes about 3-4 servings):

1 cup whole milk
1 cup single cream
1/4 tsp vanilla extract
1/2 cup sugar
2 egg yolks
pinch of whole cloves
1/4 tsp cinnamon
dark rum (to taste)

Warm the milk, cream, cinammon and cloves over light heat in a saucepan, stirring often. Mix the sugar and egg yolk well. Once the milk mixture has come to a boil, take off heat and slowly mix into the sugar/yolk mix. Add the whole mixture back into the saucepan and heat for about five minutes, stirring often – do not bring to boil this time!

I pour the mixture into a bowl and let cool for about 30mn, then move to the refrigerator for a few hours. Remove the cloves before serving, and add dark rum, nutmeg and more cinnamon to taste – enjoy!

I loved watching Brad Wiggins last year at the TdF, and now the UK has its first-ever elite-level cycling team, Team Sky.

Now Wiggins has left Garmin for Team Sky, which is a great signing for Britain’s fledgling team. Wiggins might find it harder next year since he’ll be a known factor – teams will mark him closer. But I’d love to see him do well.

Lance Armstrong’s new team, Team RadioShack, has had some news recently. First, the team’s kit was announced. It looks…well, I’m not really a fan.

I don’t know if I’d call it ugly, but impressive/bold it ain’t. Actually, I can’t believe someone got paid to design this; the only part I like is the yellow band around the left arm sleeve.

More interesting, however, is the roster. First, as expected, Lance was able to lure some top riders that used to ride with him in the past: Popovych, Kloden, Leipheimer, Chris Horner. In fact, almost half of the riders were formerly with Astana – am I the only one surprised by that? I can see some of Lance’s old lieutenants deciding to go with him for another couple of years – besides, there is a good chance that they could well be the team leader. But for some of the younger riders, I’m surprised that so many decided to ditch Alberto Contador, since he certainly looks more likely to win a few more TdFs in the next few years. Maybe he was more to blame for the division within Astana last year than we knew.

Even more interesting – Team RadioShack includes two Asian riders: Fuyu Li, from China, and Fumiyuki Beppu, from Japan – we all remember Beppu from last year’s TdF, after he was one of two riders from Japan to complete the TdF for the first time (Arashiro was the other one, also in last year’s race).

For a US-based team, there are surprisingly few Americans on the squad – only six, and most of ‘em are old farts: Lance is 38, Levi is 36, Horner is 37, McCartney is 36. The rest of the squad is very international, and young – the average age is about 29, but if we remove the old US riders, the average age comes down to a bit over 27.

So lots of exciting developments next year, and I’ll have two more teams to pull for - Wiggins for the UK factor, and RadioShack for the Japan & US factor!